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    ation from oil stocks into non-oil stocks over the fourth quarter. Many non-oil stocks were severely beaten down by persistently high oil prices, particularly when oil held $60. If earnings
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    In 2 1/2 days last week, SPX fell from 1,230 to 1,182 breaking several major short-term support levels. Energy and utility stocks, which make up 15% of SPX, fell sharply. OIH (oil ETF), for example, fell from 124 to 110 over the 2 1/2 days of selling. Many institutions held heavy positions in oil stocks for end-of-the-quarter window dressing, and then sold heavily soon after the new quarter started.

    A barrel of oil fell less than oil stocks. Oil fell from roughly $66 to $61 over the 2 1/2 day sell-off, and closed at about $62 Friday. Oil has held $60 for two months. However, it seems inevitable that oil will fall further within the next few weeks, perhaps to the low $50s, because of seasonal and cyclical factors. Consequently, there may be rotation from oil stocks into non-oil stocks over the fourth quarter. Many non-oil stocks were severely beaten down by persistently high oil prices, particularly when oil held $60. If earnings

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    example, fell from 124 to 110 over the 2 1/2 days of selling. Many institutions held heavy positions in oil stocks for end-of-the-quarter window dressing, and then sold heavily soon after the new quarter started.

    A barrel of oil fell less than oil stocks. Oil fell from roughly $66 to $61 over the 2 1/2 day sell-off, and closed at about $62 Friday. Oil has held $60 for two months. However, it seems inevitable that oil will fall further within the next few weeks, perhaps to the low $50s, because of seasonal and cyclical factors. Consequently, there may be rotation from oil stocks into non-oil stocks over the fourth quarter. Many non-oil stocks were severely beaten down by persistently high oil prices, particularly when oil held $60. If earnings

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    he new quarter started.

    A barrel of oil fell less than oil stocks. Oil fell from roughly $66 to $61 over the 2 1/2 day sell-off, and closed at about $62 Friday. Oil has held $60 for two months. However, it seems inevitable that oil will fall further within the next few weeks, perhaps to the low $50s, because of seasonal and cyclical factors. Consequently, there may be rotation from oil stocks into non-oil stocks over the fourth quarter. Many non-oil stocks were severely beaten down by persistently high oil prices, particularly when oil held $60. If earnings

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    o months. However, it seems inevitable that oil will fall further within the next few weeks, perhaps to the low $50s, because of seasonal and cyclical factors. Consequently, there may be rotation from oil stocks into non-oil stocks over the fourth quarter. Many non-oil stocks were severely beaten down by persistently high oil prices, particularly when oil held $60. If earnings
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    ation from oil stocks into non-oil stocks over the fourth quarter. Many non-oil stocks were severely beaten down by persistently high oil prices, particularly when oil held $60. If earnings growth decelerates slowly, many non-oil stocks are cheap enough to rise sharply.

    There's not a statistically significant correlation between oil stocks (and oil prices) and non-oil stocks (and the stock market), because sometimes the economy will drive both oil and non-oil stocks in the same direction, and at other times oil prices will drive oil and non-oil stocks in opposite directions. Last quarter, oil prices and oil stocks rose, many non-oil stocks fell, and the stock market was generally flat. If real economic growth, which has slowed, stabilizes at 2 1/2% to 3% over the next two quarters, then many non-oil stocks should benefit short-term.

    The chart below is an SPX monthly chart, since 1998. SPX has strong (multi-year) resistance

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